liveUpdated 13 minutes ago
Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes says overleveraged AI data-center spending will eventually crack, forcing government bailouts and money printing that become the next major bitcoin catalyst.
An AI credit bubble could set up bitcoin’s path to $1 million. (Alexas_Fotos/Pixbay)U.S. ISM Services PMI for July about in line at 54.1
The ISM Services PMI for July shows the U.S. service sector remaining solidly in expansion mode at 54.1. That’s up a hair from 54.0 in June and roughly in line with an expected 54.5.
The Prices Paid subindex rose to 70.3 from 67.7 in June.
Circle falls 3% pre-market as analysts question ARC token boost to 2026 outlook
Shares of Circle are now 3% in pre-market trading after the stablecoin issuer beat on earnings but missed on revenue.
Clear Street said adjusted EBITDA met Wall Street expectations despite a 2% revenue miss, while RLDC margin of 41.2% exceeded forecasts. The firm said stronger underlying profitability may have offset headwinds from Coinbase's (COIN) Hyperliquid (HYPE) agreement and suggested the core business is "doing better than feared" if expected $160 million in ARC token sales are recognized this year.
Compass Point also described the quarter as mixed, saying Circle's higher 2026 guidance was largely driven by non-recurring ARC token pre-sales, while highlighting continued progress in the Arc blockchain launch, Circle Payments Network and AI-powered payment products.
TeraWulf's Anthropic deal drives AI infrastructure push
TeraWulf (WULF) confirmed second quarter results Tuesday, which previously announced $19 billion, 20-year data center lease with Anthropic. The deal, covering 401 MW of capacity at its Kentucky Justified campus, HPC leasing now accounts for 71% of Q2 revenue. With 336 MW under construction at its flagship Lake Mariner site and a gigawatt-scale Kentucky campus acquired in May.
Shares are up over 1% in pre-market.
ADP jobs up just 44,000 as first look at July data misses expectations
The ADP Employment Change for July was +44,000, down from 98,000 in June and shy of economist forecasts for 70,000.
For the moment, there’s little reaction in markets, which await this week’s main event — the July Nonfarm Payrolls report from the government on Friday morning.
Ken Griffin's Citadel posts great July amid Leopold Aschenbrenner's blow-up
Thanks for playing, Leopold Aschenbrenner.
Citadel’s flagship Wellington fund gained 5.9% in July, according to CNBC, its best monthly performance in four years. The fund is now higher by 12% year-to-date.
Citadel’s tactical trading fund and equities trading fund each rose by double-digit percentages in July.
At least part of those big gains is thanks to Citadel’s scooping up of Situational Awareness’ positions as the AI-heavy portfolio run by Leopold Aschenbrenner was blowing up. Those positions rebounded strongly into the end of July and have continued soaring in the first days of August.
SpaceX extends post-earnings decline to 11%
SpaceX (SPCX) is adding to last night’s post-earnings losses, now lower by 11% to $111.80 about two hours prior to the market open.
“We now project capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 & 2028, which further pressures free cash flow in 2027, a trend we see across the hyperscalers,” said JPMorgan, lifting its price target to $240 from $225.
“We recognize the upcoming lock-up expiration on Thursday, August 6 of 911.5 million shares, potentially increasing the current float of 639 million shares by 143%, but we also believe there has already been significant pre-positioning ahead of this first expiration, the largest of many over the next several months.”
DeFi yields feed on the same uncertainty everyone else is bracing against, Curve's founder says
The macro fear driving markets sideways is exactly what generates on-chain returns, Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance and Yield Basis, and he thinks traders have the Fed's grip on DeFi backwards.
Rate decisions matter less to the ecosystem than people assume, Egorov said in a message to CoinDesk. Higher rates make tokenized Treasury products more attractive, and protocols like Ethena lean on tokenized T-bills for part of their yield, but purely on-chain yield sources get more competitive if the Fed eventually cuts.
The yields can also compound. A pool holding yield-bearing assets can earn the underlying yield and collect trading fees at the same time.
What matters more is the uncertainty itself. It fuels volatility, and volatile markets trade heavily — throwing off the fees that pay liquidity providers.
That is what pays liquidity providers, the users who deposit assets into pools so others can trade against them. Passive yield from lending or T-bills is steady and predictable. Fee income from market activity swings fast, and it climbs when everyone else is nervous.
Egorov's read is that macro anxiety is a feature for DeFi, not a threat, since choppy markets are what liquidity providers harvest. It cuts against the reflex to treat every hawkish Fed signal as a headwind for crypto.
Watch whether DeFi fee revenue holds up through the next volatile stretch. If protocol earnings rise while token prices chop sideways, Egorov's case that DeFi runs on volatility rather than rate cuts gets its proof.
The whole macro case for BTC rests on the 10-year real yield, Bitfinex says
Crypto exchange Bitfinex has said that bitcoin’s (BTC) bullish case rests on the real or inflation-adjusted yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note.
“The 10-year real yield has not stayed above 2.5% since before Bitcoin existed, so there is no price history above that line. It is now at 2.41%, nine basis points below,” the exchange said on X.
“Hold above 2.5%, and the macro tailwind is gone,” it added.
Bond yields have risen sharply since the onset of the Iran war in late February, weakening the case for risk-taking in financial markets. Yet, stocks have continued to hit new record highs, leaving bitcoin and gold far behind.
Zcash leads the crypto market bounce
Privacy-focused cryptocurrency zcash (ZEC) is leading the crypto market higher as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) struggle to gather upside traction.
ZEC has gained nearly 6% in 24 hours, with prices rising by 2% since midnight UTC hours, according to CoinDesk data. BTC and ETH have gained just 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.
Other winners are PUMP, HYPE and LIT.
Arthur Hayes says the AI bubble is a 2008-style credit blowup, and bitcoin is what catches the bailout
Arthur Hayes thinks everyone has the AI trade filed under the wrong category.
In a new essay, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX and crypto fund Maelstrom said the ongoing infrastructure buildout is a credit story like 2008, not an earnings story like the 2000 dot-com bust.
Hyperscalers, or computing frms borrow against their massive data centers, are stuffed with chips that depreciate fast, and lenders bankroll it believing they are financing technology when the underlying asset is closer to real estate.
The break comes when announced capex stops accelerating, which he pegs for late 2027 into 2028. Credit keeps flowing well past that point, the way mortgage lending did into 2007, until the weakest AI debt cracks and drags down whoever is over-levered on it.
Hayes expects Washington and Beijing to backstop the wreckage in the name of national security, printing more than they did in 2008, and that flood of liquidity is what bottoms bitcoin and drives it toward $1 million.
The nearer-term call is that the recent AI selloff, Korea's leveraged unwind included, is a dip inside a bull market.
Bitcoin traded near $64,200 on Wednesday, flat on the week and still stuck in the range it has held since May.
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
The Evolution of the Crypto CEX Landscape: A Case Study on Binance
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Jun 29, 2026
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Why it matters:
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
View Full Report
